In their book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (Wiley, 2008), D. C….

In their book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (Wiley, 2008), D. C….

In their book Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (Wiley, 2008), D. C. Montgomery, C. L. Jennings, and M. Kulahci present the data on the drowning rate for children between 1 and 4 years old per 100,000 of population in Arizona from 1970 to 2004. The data are 19.9, 16.1, 19.5, 19.8, 21.3, 15.0, 15.5, 16.4, 18.2, 15.3, 15.6, 19.5, 14.0, 13.1, 10.5, 11.5, 12.9, 8.4, 9.2, 11.9, 5.8, 8.5, 7.1, 7.9, 8.0, 9.9, 8.5, 9.1, 9.7, 6.2, 7.2, 8.7, 5.8, 5.7, and 5.2.

(a) Perform an appropriate graphical analysis of the data.

(b) Calculate and interpret the appropriate numerical summaries.

(c) Notice that the rate appears to decrease dramatically starting about 1990. Discuss some potential reasons why this could have happened.

(d) If there has been a real change in the drowning rate beginning about 1990, what impact does this have on the summary statistics that you calculated in part (b)?

 

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